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O.C. Residents Give Their Opinions
on Same-Sex Marriage and Presidential Prefernces
August 30, 2004
Orange County Residents’ Opinions On:
• Same-Sex Marriage
• Direction of the Country
• Presidential Preferences
Same-Sex Marriage
The issue of same-sex marriage has arisen:
• Nationally through President Bush’s support of a Constitutional
amendment to ban such unions,
• Locally in the case of various municipalities around the
country granting same-sex marriage licenses,
• Statewide in California
- through the passage of Proposition 22 in 2003 (which prohibited
same-sex marriage), and,
- in the recent decision by California’s Supreme Court to
invalidate same-sex marriage licenses issued by the city of San
Francisco.
The Center for Public Policy asked Orange County
respondents two questions on this issue:
• Whether they would approve or disapprove of passing a law
in California to permit same-sex marriage
• Whether they would favor or oppose amending the U.S. Constitution
to prohibit same-sex marriage.
On the matter of passing a law to permit same-sex
marriage (Table 1), Orange County respondents’ views generally
parallel those of the state as a whole. Both samples expressed disapproval
by about a 10 percent margin. Orange County respondents, however,
are twice as likely as statewide respondents to indicate that they
don’t know or have no opinion.
Table 1
Approval/Disapproval of Passing a Law in California
to Permit Same-Sex Marriage
| |
Orange County |
California |
| Approve |
35 |
43 |
| Disapprove |
55 |
53 |
| No Opionion/Don't Know |
8 |
4 |
| Refused |
2 |
0 |
When the issue is defined as amending the U.S. Constitution
(Table 2), Orange County respondents, once again, parallel statewide
results in opposing such an amendment, with fairly equal proportions
both statewide and locally saying they don’t know.
Thus, while the general trend is for respondents to
oppose actively permitting gay marriage as a matter of law, there
is also opposition to enshrining a ban on such unions by amending
the Constitution.
Table 2
Favor or Oppose a Constitutional Amendment
to Prohibit Same-Sex Marriage
| |
Orange County |
California |
| Favor |
42 |
41 |
| Oppose |
49 |
54 |
| No Opionion/Don't Know |
7 |
5 |
| Refused |
2 |
0 |
For both these issues among Orange County respondents,
democrats differ in statistically significant ways from republicans,
with the latter much more likely to support amending the Constitution
and to oppose making same-sex marriage legal.
Male and female respondents in Orange County do not
differ significantly from one another on these issues, nor does
age make a significant difference among Orange County respondents.
Comments on the Findings:
“Orange County residents and Californians are very similar
in their views on gay marriage. They simultaneously tend to
oppose permitting gay marriage, but also tend to oppose amending
the federal Constitution to prohibit it. Some of this is probably
attributable to respondents’ being cautious about amending
the Constitution, which has been amended only 27 times in over
200 years and is very hard to do. The long-term trend in public
opinion nationally is that there is decreasing hostility and
opposition expressed toward homosexuals and homosexual activity.
Yet, at the same time, there is not active support of the idea
of same-sex marriage. Our county results seem to indicate that
the public is searching for some sort of imperfect compromise
position in dealing with the legal aspects of homosexuality
as it relates to marriage.”
--Phil Gianos, professor of political
science, Cal State Fullerton |
Sources: Orange County data from July/August CSUF/Orange
County Business Council survey; California data from May 2004 Field
survey.
Questions asked for both surveys:
• Would you approve or disapprove of passing a law in California
that would permit gay and lesbians to marry members of their own
sex and have regular marriage laws apply to them?
• Do you favor or oppose an amendment to the U.S. Constitution
that would define marriage as between a man and a woman, thus barring
marriage between gay and lesbian couples?
The Direction of the Country
and
Presidential Preference
For the first time in our surveys, we asked Orange
County respondents how they felt about the overall direction of
the United States. As Table 3 shows, Orange County residents are
considerably more pleased about the direction of the country than
a national sample that was drawn at the same time indicates. Republicans
are much more likely than democrats to say the country is headed
in the right direction, as are those who support President Bush
over John Kerry.
Table 3
Percentage Who Responded That the United States
Is Going in the “Right Direction”
Orange County Respondents
(CSUF/OCBC Survey, July/August 2004) 59
National Respondents
(NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, July 2004))
36
We also asked our respondents about their preferences
in the presidential race. As Table 4 indicates, George Bush enjoys
an overall lead over John Kerry in Orange County. Ralph Nader’s
candidacy plays slightly better in Orange County than it does nationally,
though it now appears that he will not be on the November ballot
in California
Table 4
Presidential Preferences Among Likely Voters
| |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
None/Other |
Unsure |
O.C. Respondents
(CSUF/OCBC Survey) |
50 |
40 |
4 |
6 |
|
California Residents
(Field Poll, August 2004) |
40 |
51 |
2 |
|
6 |
National Respondents
(Time magazine poll, August 2004) |
44 |
48 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
(Numbers don't always add to 100 because
of rounding error.)
Comments on the Findings:
“In a traditionally republican county, George Bush may
be underperforming somewhat. The gap between the ‘right
direction’ numbers and the level of support for Bush
suggests that his support may not be fully mobilized, which
might conceivably lead to lower turnout among republicans.
That could be a problem for republican candidates running
for other so-called ‘down-ballot offices,’ such
as the U.S. Senate and state legislative races.”
--Stephen Stambough, assistant professor
of political science, CSUF (Phone: 657-278-6848)
“As one would expect, George Bush does well in Orange
County among likely voters, even while California as a whole
seems a fairly safe state for Kerry and the national race
remains close and volatile at the margins, with more important
events to come. We have the Republican Convention, the forthcoming
debates and increasing voter focus as election day approaches.
Nationally, the election is winnable for either Bush or Kerry,
but not so in Orange County, where the song remains the same.”
--Phil Gianos, professor of political
science, Cal State Fullerton |
Questions asked:
• Now, how about the United States as a whole? Do you think
that things in the U.S. are generally going in the right direction
or are they generally off on the wrong track?
• If the 2004 election for United States president were held
today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote?
Would you say Democrat John Kerry, Republican George W. Bush, third-party
candidate Ralph Nader, or would you vote for another candidate?
[names were rotated]
1. Kerry
2. Bush
3. Nader
4. Another candidate
7. DON’T KNOW / NO RESPONSE
Technical Information on the
Survey
The current survey was conducted for the CSUF Center
for Public Policy / Orange County Business Council team by the Social
Science Research Center at California State University, Fullerton
(SSRC). The SSRC director is Gregory Robinson.
Telephone interviews were conducted utilizing Computer
Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) equipment and software. The
CATI system is a sophisticated information gathering protocol that
contributes to the accuracy of data and to preserving the random
nature of the sample.
A draft survey instrument was provided by the Center
for Public Policy and refined by the Social Science Research Center
for comprehensiveness, flow, length and factors that influence respondent
cooperation and interest. Sample design and technical assistance
with data analysis was provided by the SSRC.
The survey of Orange County residents took place between
July 22 and Aug. 5, 2004. Five hundred and seventy-nine (579) randomly
selected households are represented in the data. Interviews were
conducted in English only. Calculated conservatively, the confidence
interval for findings noted is plus / minus 4.16 per cent. Confidence
intervals around subgroups within the sample are broader.
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