New Poll Tracks Attitudes and Opinions in Orange County

A poll of Orange County residents released today, Oct. 13, by Cal State Fullerton’s Center for Public Policy, found a number of surprises, including majority support for balancing the state budget with a combination of fee and tax increases and program cuts.

Raphael Sonenshein, director of the university’s Center for Public Policy and professor and chair of politics, administration and justice, says the survey findings demonstrate that “Orange County voters — both Democrat and Republican — are a whole lot more interesting and more practically-minded than either of the parties would have you believe.”

“Among the voters we talked to” Sonenshein says, “almost 60 percent felt the budget should be balance by a combination of program cuts and raising taxes and fees. That’s a pretty centrist position. At the same time, Prop 25, the measure to do away with the two-thirds requirement for passing the budget, wins considerably among Republicans, Democrats and Independents alike.”

In a random telephone survey of 601 Orange County residents conducted between Sept. 13 and Oct. 4, Cal State Fullerton’s Center for Public Policy asked respondents to state their opinions on a wide range of subjects and issues, including California’s ongoing budget crisis, the environment, Orange County’s significant problems and its future, statewide electoral contests and several voter initiatives — Propositions 19, 23 and 25.

Some 72 percent of voters cited unemployment as a significant problem in Orange County, almost 20 points ahead of traffic congestion, the next highest ranked concern.

“This is another surprise,” explains Sonenshein. “Orange’s reputation certainly doesn’t suggest unemployment would rank so high as a shared concern. If OC is showing that now, my guess is that the unemployment rate is going to dominate every other factor in the upcoming general election.”

In statewide races, the poll shows Orange County’s independent voters lean toward the Republican candidates, but only Meg Whitman enjoys a clear lead among them, according to survey results. Whitman also draws more than twice as much Democratic support as Senate candidate Carly Fiorina. In the gubernatorial race, Whitman holds a 15-point lead among Orange County adults. For comparison, Arnold Schwarzenegger won Orange County over Phil Angelides in 2006 with a 34-point advantage, 70 percent to 26 percent.

The poll also found Orange County residents oppose Proposition 19 (legalizing marijuana) and Proposition 23 (suspending air pollution control and emission regulations), and support Prop 25.

How Survey Was Conducted

Between Sept. 13 and Oct. 4, 2010, the Social Science Research Center (SSRC) at Cal State Fullerton completed telephone interviews with 601 randomly selected individuals over the age of 18 residing in Orange County. Survey respondents were asked 50 questions drafted and compiled by researchers at the Center for Public Policy about their attitudes on global warming, marijuana legalization and challenges facing Orange County, as well as how they intended to vote in the Nov. 2 election.

The final survey instrument was programmed for administration using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) software. To assure that those surveyed reflected the demographics of the county as a whole, the survey included both landline and cell phone samples. SSRC conducted 529 (88 percent) interviews in English and 72 (12 percent) in Spanish, with final response rates of 55.8 percent and 53.2 percent for the landline sample and cell phone sample, respectively. This rate is higher than observed in similar public opinion polls. Calculated conservatively, the confidence interval (margin of error) for findings noted is +/- 1.94, with a confidence level of 95 percent. Confidence intervals for findings noted among specific subgroups of the sample are broader.

Center for Public Policy

The Center for Public Policy, in the Division of Politics, Administration, and Justice, is a nonpartisan organization dedicated to exploring solutions to the public policy issues of Orange County and the adjacent communities served by Cal State Fullerton. The CPP provides a setting for faculty research in support of a program of opinion surveys and publications that seek to go beneath the surface of public opinion on issues of public policy relevant to the region. Finally, the center sponsors and co-sponsors public events that highlight the public policy challenges of the region and possible solutions to them.

Social Science Research Center

The Social Science Research Center provides research services to campus and community organizations and research support to CSUF faculty and staff. The center assists nonprofit and tax-supported agencies and organizations to conduct methodologically sound studies to answer policy-relevant research questions. The SSRC maintains a 24-station CATI survey research lab and is capable of conducting telephone surveys in multiple languages. The SSRC is directed by Laura Gil-Trejo, an expert quantitative analyst with applied research and program evaluation experience.

The complete data file, methodology and six-issue subanalyses (OC and California future, environment, marijuana legalization, state budget, statewide candidates and OC problems) can be downloaded as a single PDF file.

Some of the findings include:

Environment: With regard to how party affiliation is related to support for stricter environmental regulations to protect the environment, a majority of respondents in each party indicate support for stricter environmental regulation. Orange County residents are very environmentally conscious, broadly supporting stricter environmental laws and regulations, even when they believe these regulations will limit economic growth. A majority of respondents believe that global warming has a root cause in human activity and that global warming is a threat to the well-being of the United States. A clear majority opposes Proposition 23, suspending emissions regulations.

Statewide Races: Orange County residents indicate they are more likely to vote for Republican candidates across the board. In all cases, Independents lean toward the Republican candidates, but only Meg Whitman enjoys a clear lead among them. Whitman is also drawing more than twice as much Democratic support as Fiorina. In the gubernatorial race, Whitman holds a 15-point lead among Orange County adults. For comparison, Arnold Schwarzenegger won Orange County over Phil Angelides in 2006 with a 34-point advantage, 70 percent to 26 percent.

Legalization of Marijuana: Nearly seven out of 10 residents are aware of Proposition 19, and a majority of residents oppose the legalization of marijuana regardless of the potentially beneficial economic impact.

OC Problems: Unemployment is most frequently identified ‘large problem,’ with traffic congestion and affordable housing also cited by majorities of residents. Candidates for office this year running on a ‘jobs, jobs, jobs’ platform should find a welcoming audience in Orange County.

Right Track/Wrong Track: Asked whether they thought things in Orange County and California are generally going in the right direction, or are they generally off on the wrong track, nearly six out of 10 say Orange County is on the right track at the same time that nearly eight in 10 say the state is headed in the wrong direction.

For more information, visit www.ocpoll.com.