February 25, 2004

Orange County Residents Say ‘Yes’ to Measures on the March 2 Ballot

Orange County registered voters would vote to approve all four March 2nd ballot measures
• Prop 55: 56 – 28
• Prop 56: 43 – 39
• Prop 57: 53 – 30
• Prop 58: 67 – 14

In the latest Cal State Fullerton Center for Public Policy – Orange County Business Council survey, Orange County residents said that they plan to vote in favor of each of the propositions on the upcoming March 2 ballot.

The essential information is provided in Table One, below. Results are for respondents who told us that they are registered to vote. (In other words, respondents who told us that they are not registered to vote are excluded from the analysis that follows in Tables One through Five.)

Proposition 55
On Proposition 55, the “Kindergarten-University Public Education Facilities Bond Act of 2004,” we asked the following question. The wording was identical to that used by the Public Policy Institute of California in its January 2004 statewide survey.

The March election ballot includes Proposition 55 – the Kinder-garten to University Public Education Facilities Bond Act. This $12.3 billion bond issue will provide funding for necessary education facilities to relieve overcrowding and to repair older schools. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 55?

As noted, among Orange County registered voters, the proposal received strong support.

In Table Two, we review support for Proposition 55 by political party. Some 72% of respondents who told us that they are registered Democrats also told us that they plan to vote “yes” on the measure. Some 16% of Democrats said that they would vote “no,” and 12% of Democrats volunteered that they did not know how they would vote.

Meanwhile, as Table Two sets out, only 45% of Republicans said that they would vote “yes” on Proposition 55, with 36% of Republicans saying that they would vote “no” on the measure. Some 19% of Republicans volunteered that they did not know how they would vote.

“The stronger support for this bond measure among Democrats comes as no surprise,” commented Keith Boyum, director of the Center for Public Policy. “Democrats typically are more welcoming of bond issues than Republicans are.”

Proposition 56
On Proposition 56 we asked the following question. Again our wording was identical to that used by the Public Policy Institute of California in its January 2004 statewide survey.

Also on the March ballot is Proposition 56 – the State Budget, Related Taxes, and Reserve, Voting Requirements and Penalties Initiative Con-sti-tu-tional Amendment. This measure permits the Legislature to pass budget and budget-related tax and appropriation bills with a 55 percent vote. It also requires that the Legislature and the governor to lose compensation for each day the budget is late. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 56?

We found that the initiative measure was weakly supported by Orange County residents who told us that they are registered voters [compare Table One]. Table Three sets out the patterns of support by political party.

As will be observed in Table Three, Democrats broke in favor of the measure, with Republicans and other party registrants breaking against.

“While our numbers for Orange County show modest support for Proposition 56, a great deal will depend on the political advertising between now and the election,” commented Phillip Gianos, CSUF professor of political science.

Proposition 57
On Proposition 57, we asked the following question. Again our wording was identical to that used by the Public Policy Institute of California in its January 2004 statewide survey.

Proposition 57 on the March ballot is the Economic Recovery Bond Act. This is a one-time bond of up to $15 billion to retire the state deficit. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 57?

We found that the initiative measure was well-supported by Orange County residents who told us that they are registered voters [compare Table One]. Table Four sets out the patterns of support by political party.

As will be observed in Table Four, Republicans were more strongly in favor of the measure backed by Governor Schwarzenegger than were either Democrats or respondents registered with another party (or declined to state).

Anticipating such a result, we asked our respondents the following question:

Proposition 57 is part of the budget plan that Governor Schwarzenegger has proposed for the state government to deal with the current deficit. Does knowing that the governor supports the measure make you feel more favorably about the measure, less favorably, or does it not make a difference either way?

Some 68% of our respondents (among Republicans, a remarkable 86%) told us that knowing of Governor Schwarzenegger’s support made them feel more favorably about Proposition 57.

Proposition 58 – the California Balanced Budget Act – requires the pass-age of a balanced budget, addresses fiscal emergencies, and establishes a budget reserve. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 58?

We found that the initiative measure was very well-supported by Orange County residents who told us that they are registered voters [compare Table One]. Table Five sets out the patterns of support by political party.

As will be observed in Table Five, Republicans were more strongly in favor of the measure backed by Governor Schwarzenegger than were Democrats.

Respondents registered with another party (or declined to state) showed support levels comparable to those of Republicans.

Anticipating such a result, we asked our respondents the following question:

Proposition 58 is also part of the budget plan that Governor Schwarzeneg-ger has proposed for the state government to avoid future deficits. Does knowing that the governor supports the measure make you feel more favor-ably about the measure, less favorably, or does it not make a difference either way?

Some 69% of our respondents (among Republicans, a remarkable 80%) told us that knowing of Governor Schwarzenegger’s support made them feel more favorably about Proposition 58.

Reviewing these results, Stan Oftelie, president and CEO of the Orange County Business Council, commented:

1. “The closer we get to the election — and the more people realize that Governor Schwarzenegger is fighting hard for Propositions 57 and 58 — the stronger they seem to become. In Orange County, the connection of Arnold and these initiatives is being made — and as the connection is made, the measures surge in popularity. That’s real star power.”

2. “It’s possible that as voters zero in on these ballot measures, and as the Governor urges a “Yes” vote so emphatically, that he’ll pull both Proposition 55 and 56 to victory, too. It will be interesting to see if the governor’s YES! message becomes at all nuanced in voters’ minds — and actions.”

The Orange County Business Council has formal positions on the ballot measures, as follows: Support for Propositions 55, 57 and 58. Oppose Proposition 56.

The Board of Trustees of The California State University has formally endorsed Propositions 55, 57 and 58.

Neither the Center for Public Policy nor California State University, Fullerton have formal positions on the ballot measures.

California State University, Fullerton is slated to receive funds for construction and equipment in the event that Proposition 55 is approved by California voters.

The current survey was conducted for the CSUF Center for Public Policy / Orange County Business Council team by the Social Science Research Center at California State University, Fullerton (SSRC). The SSRC director is Gregory Robinson.

Telephone interviews were conducted utilizing Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) equipment and software. The CATI system is a sophisticated information-gathering protocol that contributes to the accuracy of data and to preserving the random nature of the sample.

A draft survey instrument was provided by the Center for Public Policy and refined by the Social Science Research Center for comprehensiveness, flow, length and factors that influence respondent cooperation and interest. Sample design and technical assistance with data analysis was provided by the SSRC.

The survey of Orange County residents took place between Feb. 4 and Feb. 22, 2004. Four hundred and sixty-five randomly selected households are represented in the data. Interviews were conducted in English only.

Calculated conservatively, the confidence interval for findings noted is plus / minus 4.64 per cent. Confidence intervals around subgroups within the sample are broader.