October 26, 2007

Tigers face UCSB in first of three must-win matches

By Jason Anderson
Record Staff Writer

STOCKTON - Pacific women's soccer coach Keith Coleman has analyzed the Big West Conference standings and explored all possible scenarios, and he keeps coming to the same conclusion.

The Tigers must win.

Pacific will play UC Santa Barbara at 7 p.m. today at Stagg Memorial Stadium in the first of three must-win matches over the next 10 days. In order to finish in the top four and qualify for the conference tournament, the Tigers will have to win each of their remaining matches and hope for help along the way.

"It's very, very possible, but all we can do is worry about trying to win (tonight)," Coleman said. "I think this weekend will sort out a ton of things, but if we win two this weekend I think we go to Davis with a chance to get in."

Long Beach State and Cal State Fullerton are tied for first place with 12 points. UC Irvine and Cal Poly are tied for third with nine points, followed by UC Riverside (7 points), UC Santa Barbara (6) and Pacific (4).

The Tigers need a certain sequence of events to unfold - some likely, some not so likely - in order to reach the conference tournament. There are at least two scenarios under which the Tigers can qualify, but only if they conclude the regular season with wins over UC Santa Barbara, Cal Poly and UC Davis.

Each team receives three points for a win and one for a tie. If the Tigers win out to finish with 13 points and UC Irvine loses three of its last four against Long Beach State, Cal State Northridge, Cal State Fullerton and UC Riverside, the Tigers would likely finish fourth. They also could finish fourth in the less likely event that Cal Poly loses three of its last four against UC Davis, Pacific, Long Beach State and Cal State Northridge.

A late surge would hardly be unprecedented at Pacific. The Tigers won three of their final four games in 2005 and reached the Big West Tournament after UC Santa Barbara upset Cal Poly on the final weekend of the regular season.

"Our players are thinking they can do exactly what that team did," Coleman said. "The difference between this team and that team is, if we get in, we can beat anybody."

Today's match

UC Santa Barbara at Pacific

Kickoff: 7 p.m., Stagg Memorial Stadium

Records: UCSB 5-8-3, 2-2-0 Big West; Pacific 6-6-3, 1-3-1