FoxSports.com
August 15, 2007
Some first-rounders can change a franchise
Ken Rosenthal
FOXSports.com
Two years ago — that's when they were drafted.
Hard to believe, considering the way that many of the top picks from 2005 are playing.
Impossible to ignore for the 11 clubs trying to sign their first-round selections before Wednesday's deadline at 11:59 p.m. ET.
A quality first rounder can alter the course of a franchise quickly, dramatically and — in a relative sense — inexpensively.
The No. 1 choice in '05, Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton, is batting fifth for a first-place club at 19 years old.
The No. 2, Royals third baseman Alex Gordon, is settling in nicely after a difficult start.
More on the 2005 draft
The 2005 draft might prove to be the best in major-league history. But the first pick never was in doubt.
The moment the Diamondbacks clinched the worst overall record in '04, the team's then-scouting director, Mike Rizzo, told the team's then-general manager, Joe Garagiola Jr., "I'm taking Justin Upton."
Rizzo, now an assistant general manager with the Nationals, says he first saw Upton play at age 12. He estimates that he saw 120 to 130 of Upton's at-bats — an unusually high number — before drafting him out of Great Bridge (Va.) H.S. at 17.
The Diamondbacks, after making shortstop Stephen Drew their first-round choice the previous year, shifted Upton from shortstop to center field. Two years later, Rizzo says he is "not surprised" that Upton is the team's starting right fielder at 19.
The Royals, who picked second in '05, thought they had an outside chance at Upton, but focused primarily on the University of Nebraska's Alex Gordon, the only left-handed hitter among the top third basemen available.
The Mariners, at No. 3, chose USC catcher Jeff Clement, a front-line hitter with average defensive skills who is now at Class AAA. The Nationals followed by taking University of Virginia third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, leaving the Brewers with a choice at No. 5.
Long Beach State shortstop Troy Tulowitzki?
Or University of Miami third baseman Ryan Braun?
The Brewers already had a young shortstop, J.J. Hardy. Rather than face the choice of moving Tulowitzki or Hardy to third base, they simply drafted Braun, who already was playing the position.
The Blue Jays, who currently are in the market for a shortstop, could have taken Tulowitzki at No. 6, but instead chose Cal State-Fullerton left-hander Ricky Romero, who has yet to rise above Class AA. That left Tulowitzki for the Rockies at No. 7.
Little did anyone know, Zimmerman would be the runner-up for National League Rookie of the Year in 2006. Braun and Tulowitzki would emerge as leading contenders for the NL award in '07. And Upton — or even Gordon — still might prove to be the best player of all.
The No. 4, Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, has emerged as the face of his franchise.
And the No. 5, Brewers third baseman Ryan Braun, owns a higher on-base/slugging percentage than Alex Rodriguez.
Granted, the 2005 draft was extraordinary, maybe the best ever. Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, another outstanding rookie, was the seventh pick. Four potential star outfielders — the Tigers' Cameron Maybin, Reds' Jay Bruce, Red Sox's Jacoby Ellsbury and Cardinals' Colby Rasmus — went 10th, 12th, 23rd and 28th, respectively.
Maybe none of the current unsigned first rounders will prove to be the same quality. But, in an era of escalating free-agent salaries, going above Major League Baseball's recommended "slot" for a top draft pick often is the right thing to do.
High-school players are a gamble. Even the best college players face a significant transition to pro ball. But talent comes at a price, and it's absurd that some teams are more devoted to the wishes of commissioner Bud Selig than the competitive desires of their own fans.
The Tigers went above slot to sign their four most recent first rounders — Maybin and pitchers Justin Verlander, Andrew Miller and Rick Porcello — for just under $20 million combined in guaranteed salary and bonuses.
Porcello, a high-school right-hander who agreed Wednesday to a $7.3 million deal, is a particularly risky investment. But for less than what the Phillies paid last off-season for free-agent right-hander Adam Eaton, the Tigers might have bought their nucleus for the next decade.
Of course, the Porcello signing also is proof that the draft often fails to serve its intended purpose, which is to distribute the strongest amateur talent to the weakest teams. Porcello went to the Tigers at No. 27 because other clubs — starting with the Royals at No. 2 — were reluctant to meet his price.
Still, some low-revenue clubs seem to do just fine.
The Brewers aren't a deep-pockets franchise, and their first-round selections of Braun, first baseman Prince Fielder and second baseman Rickie Weeks helped trigger the club's turnaround.
The A's aren't a deep-pockets franchise, and their first-round picks of left-handers Barry Zito and Mark Mulder and sixth-round selection of righty Tim Hudson helped the team make four straight post-season appearances between 2000 and '03.
With the industry awash in cash, the "signability" excuse is growing flimsy. The Royals received a reported $32 million in revenue sharing last season. They had enough money for Porcello — and they've got enough for their unsigned first rounder, high-school infielder Mike Moustakas.
There is no question that MLB's entire system for securing amateur talent remains flawed, from the open market that exists for international players to the inability of clubs to trade draft picks. The new signing deadline is but a minor tweak. Teams will need to tolerate the current framework until the system is completely overhauled.
Likewise, teams need to stop complaining about hard-line agent Scott Boras, who represents five of this year's first rounders, including Porcello (outfielder Matt LaPorta, the only other Boras client who has signed, was a college senior who lacked leverage). By now, Boras' negotiating techniques are well-established. If a team wants to avoid him, it can avoid him.
At 11:59 p.m. Wednesday, the posturing will be over and the secrets will be laid bare. Teams can take a righteous stand on behalf of Selig, refuse to sign their first- and/or second-rounders and receive compensatory selections at the same slots in next year's draft. Or teams can defy the MLB powers-that-be and try to deliver a brighter future to their fans.
Check the boxscores. Watch of the games. Five of the top seven picks from two years ago look like franchise players, and more are likely to emerge.
Shame on any club that loses the next Justin Upton or Ryan Braun.