August 13, 2007

Fidel Cedes Power to Raul

By Ricardo Chavira
Scripps Howard News Service

HAVANA _ Everything has changed, and nothing has changed. How else to describe the momentous and surreal political and social transformation rippling across Cuba?

With no announcement, Fidel Castro has permanently ceded power to his defense-minister brother Raul, officials here tacitly acknowledge. In the year since Fidel became gravely ill and turned over temporarily presidential duties to Raul, the subtle hand-off began. It has been so gradual that only now is Washington waking up to the fact that Fidel has ensured the revolution will survive his passing. Cubans, though unsettled by the switch, continue day-to-day life as before.

The transition is further complicated by the fact that Fidel has not died and still has some say in government policy. This has led certain analysts to conclude mistakenly that the elder Castro continues to run Cuba, though in seclusion. He has weighed in to stall badly needed economic reforms, but increasingly Raul is exerting his will.

Fidel's disappearance from public only underscores this trend. However, it's important to keep in mind that Raul is a staunch communist, which means the government will not veer far from its revolutionary origins. On the other hand, Fidel's younger brother is fairly pragmatic. He successfully pushed for reforms in the mid-‘90s that saved the economy from collapse. But under Fidel's fiercely anti-capitalist rule, Cuba's economy has remained fairly anemic. Judging by his public comments, Raul is acutely aware of the nation's plight.

Speaking at the annual July 26th Revolution Day celebration, he acknowledged what Fidel never would: Cubans don't earn a living wage. “Wages today are markedly not enough to satisfy all needs,” he said. By contrast, Fidel, in one of the many opinion pieces he's written in recent months, said simply reducing waste and raising Cubans' self-esteem would boost the standard of living.

Similarly in contrast to Fidel, Raul acknowledged that on-the-job theft is rampant and the product of paltry pay. The pilfering, he said, is “social indiscipline ... which, having taken root (will) prove difficult to eradicate." These are the words of a leader staking out an independent position.

Perhaps in recognition of his brother's moderating role, Raul asked Cubans to be patient while unspecified structural change is undertaken. On Havana's streets, most believe that Fidel will need to die before there can be profound economic reforms. Chief among the expected changes would be substantial wage increases, additional private enterprise and greatly reduced inflation.

For the second time since his brother took ill, Raul suggested it was time for Cuba and the United States to work out their differences. “If the United States authority were to finally desist from their arrogance and decide to converse in a civilized manner, it would be a welcome change,” he said.

It's hard to imagine such talks with the Bush administration. Washington has formed a commission to foster a transition to democracy and thwart Raul's succession. For the most part, life goes on, with Cubans clearly preoccupied with making a living. Yet many ponder the strange nature of the political change. “For all of my life he (Fidel) has been out among the people everywhere,” says factory worker Yuriel. “He is not dead, but he is no longer among us."

Journalist/author Ricardo Chavira is conducting research for a book on contemporary Cuba. He teaches Latin American studies at the University of California at Irvine and journalism at California State University, Fullerton. He can be reached at ricardochavira50@yahoo.com