May 17, 2005

Orange County voters are more willing to support the renewal of Measure M, the county’s half percent transportation sales tax, if given a detailed list of specific Orange County transportation projects that would benefit, including freeways, transit, streets and roads, according to an Orange County Business Council (OCBC)/Cal State Fullerton Center for Public Policy survey released today.

“When very real, very specific projects are introduced into a discussion of transportation funding, support for the renewal of Measure M reaches the two-thirds voter threshold needed for an extension,” said Stan Oftelie, OCBC president and CEO. “This replicates the findings of an Orange County Transportation Authority poll taken last year that found 70 percent would vote in favor of an extension after being given a list of projects. Putting the right projects in a transportation expenditure plan and then letting the public clearly know what their tax dollars are buying, will be critical to any successful renewal effort.”

When initially asked if they supported a Measure M extension, 50 percent of those surveyed said they would support a renewal. After hearing a list of probable transportation projects that could be included in a renewed Measure M, support jumped to 66 percent.

“Issues like renewing Measure M essentially come down to weighing costs versus benefits,” said Phil Gianos, professor of political science at Cal State Fullerton and director of the university’s Center for Public Policy. “If you focus solely on the price tag in a survey question, you tend to get reduced expressions of support. If you include the specific programs to be funded by that spending, support tends to increase. These results indicate that renewing Measure M will be difficult — it’s always hard to get two-thirds support — but certainly possible. This is another reminder that campaigns really matter, as will certainly be the case with renewing Measure M.”

The survey’s specific questions included the following tentative transportation projects list:

The Orange County Transportation Authority is exploring a number of possibilities for the renewal of Measure M. I’m going to read you a short list of these possibilities. Please tell me whether you think you would strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose using these locally generated funds for:

• Relieving congestion and improving traffic flow on the 5, 91, 405, 22, 55, and 57 freeways,
• Maintaining city and county streets and filling potholes,
• Expanding bus, light rail, and Metrolink rail services,
• Expanding transit services for seniors and disabled persons,
• Instituting an Independent Citizens Oversight Committee with a chairman elected by county voters to ensure that all funds are spent for transportation projects approved by the voters.

The survey found 91 percent supported or strongly supported Measure M funds for maintaining city and county streets; 89 percent supported relieving congestion and improving traffic flow; 84 percent were in favor of expanding transit services for seniors and disabled; 75 percent supported expanding public transit; and 71 percent supported instituting an independent citizens oversight committee.

In November 1990, Orange County voters authorized the 20-year Measure M program to finance specific transportation projects. Since Measure M became law with 55 percent voter approval, the California Supreme Court ruled that transportation sales tax measures need a two-thirds vote for renewal or extension. The OCTA Board of Directors currently is exploring the potential of a November 2006 countywide vote to extend Measure M for up to 30 years.

Riverside, San Bernardino and San Diego counties each have recently renewed their local option transportation sales tax measures.

The current Orange County survey was conducted in March and April for the CSUF Center for Public Policy/OCBC team by the Social Science Research Center (SSRC) at CSUF. The telephone survey respondents consisted of randomly selected households. The SSRC director is Gregory Robinson.

Telephone interviews were conducted utilizing Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) equipment and software. The CATI system is an information-gathering protocol that contributes to the accuracy of data and to preserving the random nature of the sample.

A draft survey instrument was provided by the CSUF Center for Public Policy and refined by the SSRC for comprehensiveness, flow, length and factors that influence respondent cooperation and interest.

Sample design and technical assistance with data analysis was provided by the SSRC.

Interviews were conducted between March 22 and April 12, 2005. Total sample size was 477 with a confidence interval of plus or minus 4.6 percent.

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