Orange County Residents Say ‘Yes’
to “Racial Privacy” Initiative on the October 7 Ballot
July 30, 2003
Latest Findings, CSUF – OCBC Quarterly Survey:
County Residents By Wide Margins:
Would Vote to Approve “Racial Privacy” Initiative
Would Vote to Recall Governor Davis
Orange County Residents Say ‘Yes’
to “Racial Privacy” Initiative on the October 7 Ballot
The Center for Public Policy in partnership with the Orange County
Business Council has previously reported that residents of Orange
County are strongly in favor of the recall of Governor Davis.
Now, with a special election set for October 7th,
we report an additional finding:
Orange County residents favor strongly Proposition 54, which
would amend the state constitution to prohibit state agencies from
classifying persons by race.
The finding arises from the latest survey of Orange
County residents undertaken by the Center for Public Policy at Cal
State Fullerton in partnership with the Orange County Business Council.
The initiative, a proposed constitutional amendment,
has as its most prominent sponsor Ward Connerly, a regent of the
University of California. The initiative is frequently called the
“Racial Privacy Initiative,” although the name is informal.
County residents were asked the following question.
The Racial Privacy Initiative would prohibit state and local
governments from using race, ethnicity, color or national origin
to classify current or prospective students, contractors, or employees
in public education, contracting or employment operations. If the
election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure?
As Table One indicates, nearly seven out of ten Orange
County residents would vote to “yes” to approve the
measure, if the election were held today.
Table One: How
Orange County Residents Would “Vote Today” on the Racial
Privacy Initiative
Would Vote Yes 69%
Would Vote No 31%
Julie Puentes, executive vice president of the Orange
County Business Council, noted: "In a county with rapidly changing
demographics and voter registration (Republicans no longer hold
a majority in the county, and the registration trend is toward "other"
in recent years, rather than Republican or Democrat), the fact that
69% favor this initiative is rather surprising. These results would
be more characteristic of a strongly conservative, Republican community."
“Orange County support for the initiative
would be expected to be strong,” noted Keith Boyum, CSUF political
science professor and Center for Public Policy director. “The
county is still one of California’s most conservative areas.”
“Of course, the campaign has yet really
to begin; and it is a commonplace that most ballot measures begin
with higher approval ratings than they end up with, following campaigns,”
noted Boyum. “For all of that, initiative supporters should
be pleased with this strong showing of support.”
Governor Recall Data. As a convenience,
we provide below in Table Two the key findings concerning the proposed
recall of Governor Gray Davis. These findings have previously been
released.
We asked the following question:
There is an effort under way to remove Governor Gray Davis from
office in a recall election. If a special election to recall Governor
Davis were held today, would you vote yes to remove Davis as governor
or no to keep Davis as governor?
County residents, eight out of ten of whom disapprove
of his performance in office, by a slightly smaller margin of seven
out of ten would vote “yes” to remove Governor Davis
from office, if the election were held today. Data are shown in
Table Seven.
Table Two: Orange County Residents’
Voting Intention On Recall of Governor Davis
Would vote yes to remove Davis as governor 72%
Would vote no to keep Davis as governor 28%
Noted Phillip Gianos, CSUF professor of political science: “The
pro-recall forces are more intense than those opposed to it. It
might be that agreement on the state budget, with the July 29 concurrence
of the Assembly in the state Senate’s budget, will take some
of the wind out of the pro-recall forces -- if not in terms of organization
and funding, then at least in terms of voter turnout.”
Comparison: Recall Governor; Racial Privacy. In
that roughly seven out of ten county residents would vote yes on
both – yes to recall the governor; yes to adopt the racial
privacy initiative – it is natural to ask about the degree
of overlap. In other words: Are the same people inclined to vote
yes on both measures?
Interestingly, there is some variation. Our data
show that 29% of those who want to remove the governor say that
they would vote No on the question of approving the racial privacy
initiative.
Meanwhile, among those who would vote No on the governor’s
recall – who wish to retain Davis in office – some 64%
would vote Yes on the racial privacy initiative.
This is set out in Tables Three and Four.
Table Three: Of Those Inclined
to Recall Governor Davis: Voting Intention on “Racial Privacy
Initiative”
Of those who would vote Yes to remove Governor Davis:
71% would vote Yes on “Racial Privacy Initiative”
29% would vote No on “Racial Privacy Initiative”
Table Four: Of Those Inclined NOT
to Recall Governor Davis: Voting Intention on “Racial Privacy
Initiative”
Of those who would vote No to remove Governor Davis:
64% would vote Yes on “Racial Privacy Initiative”
36% would vote No on “Racial Privacy Initiative”
“The point is, in the minds of Orange County
residents, the two issues are more independent than some activists
or ideologues might suppose,” noted Phillip Gianos, CSUF professor
of political science. “The campaign could change things —
intense campaign messages could sway Davis supporters one way, and
Davis recallers the other way. But at this very early point in a
campaign, Orange County residents don’t necessarily associate
the Connerly initiative with the Davis recall.”
_________________________
Previous results of CSUF/OCBC quarterly surveys are conveniently
accessible on the OCBC web site. See: http://www.ocbc.org/resourcesf.htm
The current survey was conducted for the CSUF Center for Public
Policy / Orange County Business Council team by the Social Science
Research Center at California State University, Fullerton (SSRC).
The SSRC director is Gregory Robinson.
Telephone interviews were conducted utilizing Computer
Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) equipment and software. The
CATI system is a sophisticated information gathering protocol that
contributes to the accuracy of data and to preserving the random
nature of the sample.
A draft survey instrument was provided by the Center
for Public Policy and refined by the Social Science Research Center
for comprehensiveness, flow, length and factors that influence respondent
cooperation and interest. Sample design and technical assistance
with data analysis were provided by the SSRC.
The survey of Orange County residents took place
between June 23 and July 8, 2003. Five hundred one randomly selected
households are represented in the data. Interviews were conducted
in English only. Calculated conservatively, the confidence interval
for findings noted is plus / minus 4.47 per cent. Confidence intervals
around subgroups within the sample are broader.
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For Further Information: |
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Phillip Gianos, Ph.D.,
Professor of Political Science at 657-278-4713 Cell:
(714) 267-4337
Stan Oftelie, President and CEO at (949) 794-7213
Julie Puentes, Executive Vice President at (949) 794-7217
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