June 26, 2006

Continuing a long pattern, more Orange County residents say the county is “heading in the right direction” than those who say the state of California is, according to a recent survey conducted by Cal State Fullerton’s Center for Public Policy and the Orange County Business Council.

Similarly, county residents rate the state of the county economy better than they do that of California’s economy in general.

Sixty-six percent of respondents told interviewers that the county was headed in the right direction, compared with 40 percent who said the same about California. (See Table 1.)

Eight percent said the state of the California economy was “very good,” with 21 percent saying the state of the Orange County economy was “very good.”

“These findings, with respect both to the respondents’ overall views as well as the more specific matters of the state of the economy, indicate again that Orange County residents tend strongly to view local conditions positively and statewide conditions less so,” said Phil Gianos, professor of political science at Cal State Fullerton and director of the CSUF Center for Public Policy. “We’ve seen this in previous surveys. I’ve come to call it the Lake Woebegone Effect. The county, relative to the state, is always rated more highly.”

“As Orange County is a powerful economic engine for the state, the Orange County Business Council is pleased to see overall positive perceptions of those polled for the county. Orange County’s high level of consistent job creation and remarkably low levels of unemployment for a sustained period of time have fostered widespread optimism about the future of the Orange County economy,” said Lucy Dunn, president and CEO of the Orange County Business Council. “Wages and household incomes are growing faster here than for the state and nation. Yet, as partners in a competitive global economy, we’d like to see a more positive perception of the state’s economic future.”

For the first time in these surveys, we also asked respondents for their views on the state of the economy. (See Table 2.) As with their more general views on the direction of the county and the state, our respondents were strikingly more likely to rate the economy of the state poorly than they did that of the county. “These figures are, of course, especially important as we enter an election campaign for governor,” Gianos said. “Both major party candidates will have to pay a good deal of attention to the state of the economy, which is very much on the minds of voters.”

When we asked our respondents to assess whether they would be better or worse off financially one year from now, 36 percent told us they expected to be better off; 48 percent told us their circumstances would be about the same; and 16 percent said they expect to be worse off.

Table 1

Attitudes on the Direction of Orange County
and the State of California

(percent saying the county [or California]
is moving in “the right direction”)

Table 2

Attitudes on Orange County and California Economies

(percent saying current conditions are “very good”)

California economy                     8%

Orange County economy          21%

The current survey was conducted for the CSUF Center for Public Policy / Orange County Business Council team by the Social Science Research Center (SSRC) at California State University, Fullerton (SSRC).  The SSRC director is Gregory Robinson. 

Interviews were conducted between May 3 and May 22. The total sample size was 486.

Telephone interviews were conducted utilizing Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) equipment and software. 

The CATI system is a sophisticated information-gathering protocol that contributes to the accuracy of data and to preserving the random nature of the sample. 

A draft survey instrument was provided by the Center for Public Policy and refined by the Social Science Research Center for comprehensiveness, flow, length and factors that influence respondent cooperation and interest. 

Sample design and technical assistance with data analysis was provided by the SSRC.

The confidence interval (popularly known as the margin of error) for items in this survey, calculated conservatively, is plus or minus 4.54 percent.

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